Each offensive reaches a high water mark and must pause. Usually it goes on the defense until sufficient strength is reconstituted. Ukraine may have launched this incursion to have land to bargain with.
I note that historical references to the WWII battle of Kursk omit the impact of the Enigma machine and the broken codes. This gave the Soviet defenders the operational plan before the German subordinate commanders had the Op Order in hand. Time does not favor Ukraine. The center of gravity in this war is Putin. His removal and Regime Change is Ukraine’s only true hope for survival.
The Kursk incursion is a fascinating move by Ukraine--one that seems to have even have a fair number of lay strategists confounded as to its objectives.
However, I am beginning to wonder if one of the possible outcomes of Kursk is to show how Russia has already "lost" in a geostrategic and political sense.
Assume that Russia and Ukraine agree to peace terms whereby Russia holds the territories it has gained in Eastern Ukraine. Russia's border with Ukraine--for which the only natural defensive barrier even for a part of it is the Dniepro River--will have grown LONGER not shorter. To shorten the border Russia would have needed to conquer the whole of the country (hence the decapitation strike against Kyiv at the outset of the war).
Whatever Russia's border with Ukraine ends up being, Russia will have to defend it. It will have to build and maintain a strong defensive line along the length of that border--perhaps not as strong as the French Maginot Line (which worked militarily, as the Germans refused to challenge the line frontally), but more robust than what was in place for Kursk Oblast. That means men and materiel are permanently tied down on that border.
Border defense becomes even more challenging in the light of the apparent failure of Rosgardia and the conscript elements of the regular army to effectively contain the Ukrainian advance. Even the reporting in the Russian media indicates the front within Kursk Oblast is not yet stable as of last night. At least 121,000 Russian civilians have been evacuated according to Russian media.
This paints a peace scenario where even if Russia gets to keep its territorial gains thus far, part of the price of that peace is going to be tying its military down to the border with Ukraine for the foreseeable future. That is going to limit power projection elsewhere, such as in the Caucasus and along the border with Poland.
This leaves Russia in a weaker position and less able to exert geopolitical influence along its borders.
It would be an exaggeration to say that Kursk will produce a Ukrainian victory. However, as time goes on it's becoming more likely it could produce a Russian defeat.
Good analysis however I would include the morale benefit of Ukraine’s offensive both in upping the attacker’s and damaging the Russian’s. Plus Ukraine benefits from dominating the news cycle of supporting allies. As well planned as this has been so far I would expect the Ukrainians have a well considered exit strategy.
Got a good Russian joke for you:
Putin rings up Stalin in hell. “Comrade Stalin, Nazis are attacking Kursk! What do I do?!”
Stalin: “What, again?! But Volodya don’t you remember your history of the Great Patriotic War? The answer is simple. Do what we did in 1943, send in the Ukrainians armed with American equipment. You can’t possibly lose!”
If there's no power to punch hard behind the surge, continue the attack, and take out real strategic targets, it's just going to fizzle out as a kind of bulge that ultimately gets cut off and destroyed by superior air and artillery power or that, at best, amounts to counting coup, followed by a retreat to safer ground. In any case, it can't be sustained.
Good write up. I like the historical context.
Each offensive reaches a high water mark and must pause. Usually it goes on the defense until sufficient strength is reconstituted. Ukraine may have launched this incursion to have land to bargain with.
I note that historical references to the WWII battle of Kursk omit the impact of the Enigma machine and the broken codes. This gave the Soviet defenders the operational plan before the German subordinate commanders had the Op Order in hand. Time does not favor Ukraine. The center of gravity in this war is Putin. His removal and Regime Change is Ukraine’s only true hope for survival.
The Kursk incursion is a fascinating move by Ukraine--one that seems to have even have a fair number of lay strategists confounded as to its objectives.
However, I am beginning to wonder if one of the possible outcomes of Kursk is to show how Russia has already "lost" in a geostrategic and political sense.
Assume that Russia and Ukraine agree to peace terms whereby Russia holds the territories it has gained in Eastern Ukraine. Russia's border with Ukraine--for which the only natural defensive barrier even for a part of it is the Dniepro River--will have grown LONGER not shorter. To shorten the border Russia would have needed to conquer the whole of the country (hence the decapitation strike against Kyiv at the outset of the war).
Whatever Russia's border with Ukraine ends up being, Russia will have to defend it. It will have to build and maintain a strong defensive line along the length of that border--perhaps not as strong as the French Maginot Line (which worked militarily, as the Germans refused to challenge the line frontally), but more robust than what was in place for Kursk Oblast. That means men and materiel are permanently tied down on that border.
Border defense becomes even more challenging in the light of the apparent failure of Rosgardia and the conscript elements of the regular army to effectively contain the Ukrainian advance. Even the reporting in the Russian media indicates the front within Kursk Oblast is not yet stable as of last night. At least 121,000 Russian civilians have been evacuated according to Russian media.
https://www-kommersant-ru.translate.goog/doc/6903638?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
This paints a peace scenario where even if Russia gets to keep its territorial gains thus far, part of the price of that peace is going to be tying its military down to the border with Ukraine for the foreseeable future. That is going to limit power projection elsewhere, such as in the Caucasus and along the border with Poland.
This leaves Russia in a weaker position and less able to exert geopolitical influence along its borders.
It would be an exaggeration to say that Kursk will produce a Ukrainian victory. However, as time goes on it's becoming more likely it could produce a Russian defeat.
Good analysis however I would include the morale benefit of Ukraine’s offensive both in upping the attacker’s and damaging the Russian’s. Plus Ukraine benefits from dominating the news cycle of supporting allies. As well planned as this has been so far I would expect the Ukrainians have a well considered exit strategy.
Got a good Russian joke for you:
Putin rings up Stalin in hell. “Comrade Stalin, Nazis are attacking Kursk! What do I do?!”
Stalin: “What, again?! But Volodya don’t you remember your history of the Great Patriotic War? The answer is simple. Do what we did in 1943, send in the Ukrainians armed with American equipment. You can’t possibly lose!”
If there's no power to punch hard behind the surge, continue the attack, and take out real strategic targets, it's just going to fizzle out as a kind of bulge that ultimately gets cut off and destroyed by superior air and artillery power or that, at best, amounts to counting coup, followed by a retreat to safer ground. In any case, it can't be sustained.